It all points to Legal Eagle for the R5m, Grade 1 Sun Met (2000m) at Kenilworth on Saturday. The form book, the handicappers and the bookmakers say the 2-1 favourite is the best horse in the race, he won the Queen’s Plate convincingly and his stable is on fire.
Yet the recent history of Saturday's Sun Met says he will probably get beaten. Since Pocket Power won for the third time eight years ago every favourite bar one has met with defeat, only one Queen’s Plate winner has completed the double and he himself was beaten 12 months ago.
The two biggest dangers are 28-10 shot Marinaresco and 9-2 chance Whisky Baron. Both are four-year-olds -an age group that has won four of the last six Mets - and Marinaresco was less than half a length off Legal Eagle in the Green Point here in December even though the trip was too short for him. It could be his turn this time.
Whisky Baron, narrowly but comfortably beaten by Marinaresco in last season’s Winter Guineas and Classic, is a different proposition since being gelded and has been busy working his way through the ranks. He looks a major threat.
Gold Standard has been heavily backed in the last week – from 12-1 to half that price - and will race in new colours (Drakenstein has bought an interest) but you have to go right back to Badger’s Coast at the turn of the century to find a three-year-old Met winner.
Captain America, only a length behind Legal Eagle 12 months ago, was second to him in the Queen’s Plate and is a huge price at 18-1. Almost certainly the best of the outsiders.
Two of the last five winners were fillies and Bela-Bela could well make the frame at 11-1. She wasn’t quite ready when she only just got home in her last two starts. But good enough to win? Questionnable.
The Conglomerate’s name would resonate round the world if Frankie Dettori was in a position to do his famous flying dismount but this is another that is more of a place prospect. The same with fellow 18-1 shot French Navy and It’s My Turn (15-1).
Table Bay at 9-2 makes a lot more appeal than Horizon at 12-10 in the Investec Cape Derby. If the former’s stamina – or lack of it – proves to be his Achilles heel then this could be Dettori’s chance. Edict Of Nantes races as if this trip is what he wants.
Trip To Heaven was super-impressive when winning the Diadem by almost four lengths. Disturbingly - particularly as the Betting World Cape Flying Championship is over a furlong shorter - he again gave away ground at the start. S’Manga Khumalo has preferred Carry On Alice but the 28-10 favourite looks the one they all have to beat – including Red Ray (11-2) and last year’s winner Gulf Storm who is much better than his 25-1 price would suggest.
Sean Tarry may also win the CTS Sprint with Cloth Of Cloud while William Longsword stands out in the Mile. Silver Mountain’s coffin-box draw has surely killed her Klawervlei Majorca chance. Maybe Star Express or Lady Of The House.
