Brett Davis provides exclusive Preview of Happy Valley races.
Rail - C Course
Race 1
#4 SUPER ELITE continues to race with enthusiasm following a dominant win at the end of last season.He's had to deal with a pair of ugly barrier draws at his past two starts whereas today he's positioned ideally in gate 5.Hugh Bowman opts to stick with THE KHAN, which creates a certain amount of doubt, but I don't see a great deal between the two with the return to 1200m being key.
#3 COUNTRY DANCER has endured numerous set backs along the way including a bone chip removal mid year from the right knee.That all appears behind him now following two strong trials at Conghua and the leading jockey has taken the opportunity to jump aboard.His 4th place in February over this exact course and trip, and in class 4, would easily have him winning this race.So with a drop to class 5 on the table the stars appear to align.
#1 THE KHAN hasn't set the world on fire from his short career of 11 starts but finally racked up his first win last start.He's another runner to find his way into class 5 prior to the off season break and with Hugh Bowman sticking fat in the saddle you can expect he'll run well.He's clearly more effective when ridden with patience early and barrier 7 again creates an opportunity to do so.However, the return to Happy Valley, additional 7lbs and shorter trip of 1200m are key components to acknowledge.
#7 SAME TO YOU won well first up at Sha Tin before traffic and an interrupted path coast him badly at his following start.A transfer to Happy Valley takes place with the positive being he's been here before and performed well.He possesses natural speed, which shall have him positioned well, so he'll therefore be ready to strike when they swing.Brenton Avdulla also knows him particularly well which adds a stack of confidence when making your choice.
#10 CHEERS FOR SOUTH has dropped significantly in the ratings over the past 6 months and is yet to win a race.Nonetheless, he's a renowned speed horse when on song and with that in mind I'd suggest putting him in.A small claim and barrier 2 are reasons to suggest he may run well but it's difficult recommending him with confidence.
Selections : 4,3,1,7,10
R2 - 1,9,7,2,6
R3 - 5,7,2,11,10
Race 4
#1 DENFIELD recorded one of the faster last 800m of the night when a recent runner up to COLONEL and a similar performance here has him hard to beat.There's certainly some talented opponents to consider and the weight is a definite factor but the low draw allows him to box seat.His only win last season was achieved when racing second up and it came of a handicap mark of 60points, one point higher than his mark today.
#6 LUCKY PLANET recorded fast time when winning at the end of last season and a repeat of that performance has him winning this today.The problem is however, that he performed six lengths below that rating first up after receiving a softer time during the first half.I expect he'll strip a lot fitter with that run now under his skin and a recent trial win would suggest that's the case, but he may still be vulnerable at this stage of his preparation when it counts.
#3 LAKESHORE HERO is on debut and the interesting runner with blinkers going on.Trainer David Hall has tightened the screws in preparation with 6 barrier trials completed, two of which he's won, and they date back to early April.He's gifted with plenty of natural gate speed and there is no doubt he'll be out in a hurry looking to cross.He's trialled twice here at Happy Valley in the past and appears an extremely dangerous runner to leave out.
#10 YOUNG HORIZON has won all his races at Sha Tin over 1400m whilst competing in the lowest grade of class 5.He's therefore unable to be tipped to win with any conviction but can still run well enough to feature in exotics.He maps well with cover creating a nice level of comfort and a good speed anticipated mid race allows him to close.
#9 SPEED SWORD has no positive form to speak of but transferred stables during the off season break.Since then, his track work has gradually improved, along with results at the trials, so he's worthy of inclusion at a price.Furthermore, he arrived to Hong Kong from Australia off a rating of 63 point's following a comprehensive win a Wyong.
Selections : 1,6,3,10,9
Race 5
#11 SKY PROPHET made rapid progress recently when he powered home to the line from along way back.He's far from the finished product, and the lack of tempo here won't help, but is capable of producing the win with favours in the run.Where he positions up early is the key to his final result, and despite the fact I believe he'll end up a long way back, he must be considered.
#10 GIMME FIVE had intimated that a win was close at the end of last season and nothing has changed this campaign.The blinkers went on last start and he subsequently found the line with a genuine focus that clearly hadn't been witnessed before.Combining that information with a good barrier, the number one rider aboard and a mediocre class 4 field to defeat, and he's likely to start favourite and the runner they all must respect and defeat.
#3 TELECOM DRAGON appeared ready to win a second race at the end of 2023 before a bad bleed during track work put him on the sidelines in March 2024.Since then, he's continued to make steady progress without any concerning issues until he scoped with blood in July.Nevertheless, his work and trials in the lead up to today's long awaited return have been solid without real pressure applied, so he must be included despite the fact he remains risky.
#8 SMART FIGHTER is yet to break his Hong Kong maiden status but it hasn't been from a lack of endeavour.With a lack of oppositional speed in this contest there's a strong chance he'll set a tempo that he likes.He goes in fit with two honest minor placings achieved but shall have to build on his closing splits if he's to bring up a deserved win.
#9 TACTICAL COMMAND is the horse you want if you're after a reliable and no fuss character when it comes to the crunch .He always jumps well, he's in a rich vein of form and can certainly produce the required turn of foot to win.The rider also knows him well and he should be a back-able win place/price, but the wide gate is a concern.
Selections : 11,10,3,8,9
R6 - 1,10,11,7,6
R7 - 4,2,1,5,3
R8 - 8,2,1,7,10
R9 - 4,7,10,3,2
R10 - 6,1,5,2,7
