The Danny Williams-trained Luxury can close out today's Goulburn card a winner.
Williams is always one to be taken seriously around his home track of Goulburn with his high strike-rate matched by good market statistics.
Check out Danny Williams statistics here.
Williams strikes at 23 percent on his home track over the long term - high striking indeed.
His five winners at the course this season have returned punters a profit on turnover of 14.8 percent.
Luxury is not one of those winners, her lone success since joining Williams coming at Canberra first up last time in, before racing in town for the remainder of the campaign.
That fresh success points to another key stat relating to Williams' stable.
He has saddles 15 horses off a break this season for six winners and four placegetters, returning punters a profit on turnover of 147.3 percent.
Of course this is a small sample, meaning Williams could simply be having a short term run, but long term stats suggest there is nothing flukey about this at all.
The stable have turned out 230 first up runners since the turn of the century for 53 winners and a profit on turnover of 7.5 percent. There's no fluke about that. The stable can produce one fresh.
That leaves Luxury in a good spot this afternoon, and her ratings profile suggests that she is good enough to take advantage of it.
She's still lightly raced, has performed well in better races than what she tackles this afternoon, and should be open to further improvement this time in.
Her danger might be another lightly raced horse in Te Rux.
Te Rux was well beaten first up from a break and that would have to be a concerning sign.
He'll have to improve sharply on that but he did so in his debut campaign which bodes well for his chances this afternoon.
He was well beaten on debut at Canberra before stepping out and taking a Nowra maiden in decent style before a break.
His trial leading up to this campaign was full of promise and points to him being a much better horse than the one that we saw well beaten last time.
He finished second to the very smart Kuro there and was knocked around in doing so.
The big key might be firmer footing, his two flops have come on ground worse than good, and he should be given plenty of respect coming here today.
Fringe hopes include another Danny Williams-trained runner in Bay Truffle and Gerald Ryan's Star Wars.
Best of luck and happy punting.
