Hardy New Zealand mare Zennista looks poised to grab her first win on Australian soil in this afternoon's Listed Caloundra Cup (2400m).

It looks an intriguing battle on paper with a capacity field set to square off for the $200,000 prize pool, the majority of which was claimed by Victorian stayer Shenzhou Steeds last year.

He’ll be lining up again today looking to defend his title, and hit form at the right time last weekend in the Tatt’s Cup when running a narrow second to Rialya, but I think Zennista looks to have his measure today.

In saying that I expect it to be pretty tight.

The five-year-old Zennista, trained out of Awapuni by Lisa Latta, is well credentialed for a race like this.

As a three-year-old she ran second over this trip in the Group 1 New Zealand Oaks at Trentham. She’s also won at Group and Listed level on the other side of the Tasman.

But it was her bold third placing in the Group 2 Brisbane Cup three weeks back looks the key piece of form for today’s race.

She ran to a Timeform figure of 109 that day, finishing 1.2L behind the winner Moriarty. Fellow New Zealander and Eagle Farm Cup winner Quintessential split the pair.

That 109 equalled the number Zennista produced in that New Zealand Oaks, her second highest career showing behind the 115 she ran to when winning the Group 3 Tauranga Stakes (1600m) in the New Zealand spring.

It looks a strong formline that Brisbane Cup. Moriarty ran fourth behind Quintessential, Manighar and Voila Ici in the Eagle Farm Cup after winning the Listed Lord Mayor’s Cup in Sydney the start prior.

And Quintessential won the Group 3 Chairman’s Handicap leading into the Eagle Farm Cup.

Perhaps most crucially, Shenzhou Steeds was beaten 6.9L in that Brisbane Cup and only meets Zennista half a kilogram better off today.

But we’ll get to his chances in a moment.

The Brisbane Cup has proven a key lead-up to the Caloundra Cup in recent times. Four winners since 2005 have come through the race including Fast Future in 2008 who ran to 110 in winning this race, the equal highest figure in the past decade.

Shenzhou Steeds ran to 109+ in winning last year’s Caloundra Cup, finishing seven lengths clear in what would have been a very weak renewal were it not for his presence.

Zennista clearly has the ability to run a winning figure today, and with just 55kg from barrier two she should be able to set the tempo or sit just off the pace likely to be set by Voila Ici and Za Magic.

Za Magic was bold when third in the Ipswich Cup but this looks a tougher race. Voila Ici meanwhile faded under his big weight in that same race, and will likely do so again today.

Shenzhou Steeds shapes as the main danger and he’s unbeaten in all three starts at this track.

His narrow second in the Tatt’s Cup netted a Timeform figure of 108 and that’s good enough to win this.

Last year he came into this race off an Ipswich Cup win, and trainer Michael Moroney has opted for a different path this year.

The Tatt’s Cup is certainly a proven lead-up to this race. Between 2005 and 2009, four of the five Caloundra Cup winners came through that race.

My concern with Shenzhou Steeds is that he’s never raced off a seven-day back-up in 27 career starts.

This looks a much stronger renewal than last year’s race, and his form prior to that Tatt’s Cup this campaign had been pretty ordinary.

In fact, barring a resuming sixth in the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington back in September, his Victorian spring wasn’t much better.

He may be back to his best now, that run in the Tatt’s Cup would suggest he probably is, but there is a slight question mark on his credentials today.

The numbers say he’s good enough however so he needs to be respected.

I’ve included another New Zealander, High Kin, for third.

She looked the one to follow out of the Ipswich Cup, won rather surprisingly by Anagold two weeks ago.

High Kin flashed home out wide to miss by a head, running to a Timeform figure of 98.

Given the winner of this race has come through the Ipswich Cup over the past two years, I thought he looked a chance in this.

The extra trip should suit nicely, he just needs a bit of luck from barrier 18.

Jockey Michael Cahill takes the ride though, and he’s been the best rider in Queensland this year. Don’t rule him out.

One more worth a look is Rothera who looked the winner of the Tatt’s Cup last weekend, before fading late on to finish third.

He ran to 110 in that race, and also came through the Brisbane Cup.

Question marks were again raised over his staying potential last weekend, but you can forgive him given he was wide for most the journey.

Plus he’ll relish any rain if the skies open up. Don’t write the Queenslander off just yet.

Enjoy what looks to be a very competitive Caloundra Cup.

First run in 1985

Listed

Honour roll

2012

Shenzhou Steeds

Winning rating: 109+

Lead up runs: Won Ipswich Cup with 106 after coming up from Victoria

2011

Spechenka

Winning rating: 105

Lead up runs: Failed in Ipswich Cup, well held in Strawberry Road prior

2010

Ironstein

Winning rating: 102

Lead up runs: Won two straight in Sydney

2009

Reggie

Winning rating: 108

Lead up runs: Failed in the Tatt’s Cup a week earlier and 6th in the Brisbane Cup the run prior after winning the Premier’s Cup

2008

Fast Future

Winning rating: 110

Lead up runs: Beaten a nose in the Tatt’s Cup, well beaten in the Brisbane Cup

2007

King Latarmiss

Winning rating: 92

Lead up runs: 2nd at Sunny Coast and fourth in Rocky Gold Cup

2006

Empyreal

Winning rating: 104

Lead up runs: Narrow second in the Tatt’s Cup, well beaten in Brisbane Cup

2005

Empyreal

Winning rating: 103

Lead up runs: 3rd in Tatt’s Cup, well beaten in Brisbane Cup

2004

Portland Singa

Winning rating:105

Lead up runs: Won Ipswich Cup after a couple of runs in Sydney

2003

Raw Instinct

Winning rating: 110

Lead up runs: 3rd in Tatt’s Cup beaten 4.5L

2002

Victory Smile

Winning rating: 112

Lead up runs: Narrowly beaten in Ipswich Cup, New Zealander

2001

Henderson Bay

Winning rating: 112

Lead up runs: Won Ipswich Cup