Cox Plate Preview, selections and best bets from Chris Scholtz for the Moonee Valley and Randwick meetings on October 26 plus Trial Watch and Blackbook runners.
WS COX PLATE: We have learnt from experience to never take a Japanese raider lightly when they target our feature races. From limited numbers the Japanese have made a huge impact on Australian racing, beginning with their historic Melbourne Cup quinella in 2006 with Delta Blues and Pop Rock.
In subsequent years Japanese-trained horses or their tried performers that joined Australian stables have racked up victories in Caulfield Cups, Cox Plates, Golden Eagles and numerous other G1 features - think Admire Rakti, Mer De Glace, Lys Gracieux, Real Impact, Hana's Goal, Tosen Stardom, Brave Smash and Obamburamai.
I dare say the success rate would be higher if it wasn't for the equine influenza outbreak that interrupted international horse transport for some three years and left lasting quarantine issues for Japanese thoroughbreds.
The bottom line is when the Japanese turn up they are a force to be reckoned with. Enter PROGNOSIS, the high class son of Deep Impact here to run for the Rising Sun against Australia's best.
He has all the credentials to join Lys Gracieux as Japan's second Cox Plate winner, his top class homeland form supplemented by his visits to Hong Kong where he has locked horns with Romantic Warrior three times. Only bad luck and poor riding tactics stopped him from registering a G1 win over Hong Kong's Cox Plate champion.
We have come to respect the Japanese horses for their ability to absorb high pressure and keep running at speeds above the average. With a high balling leader like PRIDE OF JENNI engaged, this year's Cox Plate will be no place for the faint hearted and maps to become one of those gut wrenching tests where the winner is the horse surviving a hard slog over the last 600 metres.
It might not generate the same drama charged two horse war that made Bonecrusher and Our Waverley Star Cox Plate legends but this year is going to be won by the horse with the speed and stamina to run down PRIDE OF JENNI if she is allowed to establish the commanding lead that chasers have found beyond them in her previous G1 wins.
I'm convinced her memorable Queen Elizabeth Stakes win at Randwick when she led the field by almost 200 metres mid race is a one off performance. Her rivals went to sleep while she was running fast sectionals well above the average for the first 1400m of that race, allowing her to open up an insurmountable lead.
It's possible Declan Bates will attempt a QE Stakes repeat but this is a classier field and rival riders are now awake to PRIDE OF JENNI'S racing style, clearly evident at Randwick last Saturday in the King Charles Stakes over 1600m when early pressure left her vulnerable at the finish.
How she backs up from last Saturday's testing performance is only part of the equation. Her race speed through the first 1200m is the real key as PRIDE OF JENNI running free of the Cox Plate field as we anticipate will force her key rivals to start their runs from the 800m in an attempt to close her down.
This will be to their own detriment with PROGNOSIS the exception.
His camp have worked on his trait of being tardy out of the gates and are confident he is now a better barrier horse. If that's the case he's the one with the capabilities to sustain the speed required to get home over the top of PRIDE OF JENNI at the finish.
COX PLATE SELECTIONS: (2) PROGNOSIS; (6) Pride of Jenni; (8) Broadsiding; (7) Via Sistina; (1) Mr Brightside; (9) Evaporate
MOONEE VALLEY October 26
Best Value
RACE 7: (5) I AM UNSTOPPABLE
RACE 8: (11) PLENTY OF AMMO
RACE 10: (6) FIRESTORM
Selections
RACE 1: (10) HOLY RACKET; (9) Frilled; (3) Acromantula; (8) Unflinching
RACE 2: (3) BOSUSTOW; (5) Ikasara; (6) Winnasedge; (1) Bittercreek
RACE 3: (8) SAVAGERY VIBE; (7) Certain Rise; (3) Supercilious; ((9) Grinzinger Pod
RACE 4: (9) DOUBLE MARKET; (7) Polymnia; (4) Foreverintime; (2) In Her Eyes
RACE 5: (5) SECOND TO NUN; (1) Future History; (3) Gear Up; (2) Smokin' Romans
RACE 6: (4) POLITELY DUN; (2) Red Aces; (1) Vianarra; (6) King Of Thunder
RACE 7: (5) I AM UNSTOPPABLE; (2) Oscar's Fortune; (3) Mornington Glory; (8) Baraqiel
RACE 8: (11) PLENTY OF AMMO; (1) Uncle Bryn; (7) Royal Champion; (4) Nugget
RACE 9: (2) PROGNOSIS; (6) Pride Of Jenni; (8) Broadsiding; (7) Via Sistina
RACE 10: (6) FIRESTORM; (8) Private Legacy; (5) Little Mix; (9) Basilinna
RANDWICK October 26
Best Bets
RACE 5 (2) JUST PARTY: Sets up as a rematch with Anode after a nose split them over 1400m at Rosehill on October 12. Just Party, wearing blinkers for the first time, posted fast closing sectionals as he made up six lengths along the inside rail from the 400m after a slow start. As they meet on the same weight terms it's easy to like his chances of turning the tables over the extra 200m.
RACE 7 (1) EL CASTELLO: Has met every challenge this season with three successive wins, rising from his maiden win over 1400m to his latest success in the G3 Gloaming Stakes over 1800m at Rosehill on October 12. A feature of each win has been his tactical speed and as he has got stronger each time he should relish the rise to 2000m.
RACE 8 (2) MAGIC TIME: Grahame Begg is a master at setting his horses for target races and he has his best mare fine-tuned for this $2 million feature for her own sex after her excellent first up fourth in the G2 Gilgai over 1200m at Flemington when she was squeezed out of a close first three finish in the last 50 metres. She's missed a place only once in six Sydney starts including her G1 win over this course and distance in the All Aged Stakes and her close third as favourite in this race last year. The one to beat if she brings that form.
Selections
RACE 1: (2) COMEDY; (6) Arabella Star; (3) Gaeilge; (5) The Little General
RACE 2: (14) LET'S GO AGAIN; (11) Mogul Monarch; (3) Pajanti; (12) Monte Supreme
RACE 3: (7) CABLE EXPRESS; (10) Magic Pharoah; (17) Straight Fire; (4) Volcanic Love
RACE 4: (4) SMASHING TIME; (8) Amazing Eagle; (1) High Octane; (2) King Of Roseau
RACE 5: (2) JUST PARTY; (1) Anode; (4) Deconstruction; (5) Althoff
RACE 6: (6) DEMOCRACY MANIFEST; (2) Fawkner Park; (10) New Endeavour; (1) Numerian
RACE 7: (1) EL CASTELLO; (2) Swift Falcon; (9) Rag Queen; (4) Firm Agreement
RACE 8: (2) MAGIC TIME; (1) Zougotcha; (5) Olentia; (10) Coco Jamboo
RACE 9: (12) TERRITORY EXPRESS; (7) Yellow Brick; (6) Amor Victorious; (11) Iknowastar
RACE 10: (6) CAFE MILLENIUM; (10) Riyazan; (9) Sounds Of Heaven; (5) Kintyre
Why They Can Win….
RACE 1: (2) COMEDY - Well prepared off two Randwick trials, the latest on Tuesday. Looks adaptable.
RACE 2: (14) LET'S GO AGAIN - Lightly raced improver. Well placed at the weights.
RACE 3: (7) CABLE EXPRESS - Sure to be fitter for his good first-up effort. Suited this class and distance.
RACE 4: (4) SMASHING TIME - Talented prospect. Sets up well for this after his strong first-up win.
RACE 6: (6) DEMOCRACY MANIFEST - Rates highly off his Epsom effort. Handled his only 1800m start well last spring.
RACE 9: (12) TERRITORY EXPRESS - Super effort when resuming. Hard to beat with the right run.
RACE 10: (6) CAFE MILLENIUM - Which one finds best form? This big fella ticks the right boxes with blinkers back on third up.
TRIAL WATCH REPORT
NOTED TRIAL RUNNERS – October 26
RANDWICK SATURDAY: Comedy (R1); Gaeilge (R1); Amazing Eagle (R4); Queues Likely (R8); Amor Victorious (R9); Robusto (R9)
MOONEE VALLEY SATURDAY: Pisces (R2)
KEMBLA GRANGE SATURDAY: Occult (R4); Shelstein (R4); Incantation (R5); Seton Hall (R8)
TRIAL POINTERS
RANDWICK October 22: Godolphin gave several youngsters their second trials with COMEDY, a previous trial winner, taking the eye finishing alongside stablemate GAEILGE. He was ridden on the speed to win his first trial and looked good again in this heat working home from off the pace.
ROSEHILL October 18: Lightly raced 5YO SETON HALL impressed in his previous trial on October 4 with his effort to finish third in this 900m heat (54.38; 34.23) more confirmation that he is set for a successful campaign. Like his previous trial he settled well off the pace before working home under a big hold with plenty to offer through the line. In the trials over 1030m the maiden heat winner AMAZING EAGLE (62.09; 34.57) had been noted in a previous trial and his effort at this session confirmed that he has the talent to win races.
WARWICK FARM October 15: Classy pair AMOR VICTORIOUS and ROBUSTO trialled well in the heavy in their 1200m heats. ROBUSTO covered ground but had a bit on his rivals in his heat while AMOR VICTORIOUS was 10 lengths off the tearaway winner FELIX MAJESTIC at the 600m and closed him down to 1.5 lengths at the finish. A new import took the eye with an easy trial. Keen to follow the progress of QUEUES LIKELY, a G3 winner in Germany now with Bjorn Baker who worked to the line for third behind Felix Majestic.
RANDWICK October 8: The A Grass trials saw a nice win from the Godolphin youngster COMEDY in the fastest of the two 2YO heats (43.55; 32.81).
ROSEHILL October 4: In a deep 900m heat (54.66; 34.46) the eye catcher was a surging fourth from last by SETON HALL, a maiden winner last season with bright prospects. The maiden heats were chock full of good trials. Mark down the winner AMAZING EAGLE as a good prospect for an early win.
RECENT TRIAL WATCH WINNERS: Strong Trade; Pisanello; Overpass; Flame Of Hestia; Manos; Icarian Dream; Olentia; Admitted; Hard To Say; Iowna Benz; Aye Aye Captain; Force Red; Broadsiding; Swift Falcon; Creek; Zoubaby; Amelita; Ellipsis; Sunshine In Paris; Lady Shenandoah; Traffic Warden; Dashing Rupert; Opal Fields; Royal Patronage; Watch My Girl
BLACKBOOK REPORT
ELIGIBLE BLACKBOOK RUNNERS – October 25-26
MOONEE VALLEY SATURDAY: Kovalica (R9); Little Mix (R10)
RANDWICK SATURDAY: Althoff (R5); Democracy Manifest (R6); Henlein (R7); Danny's St Darci (R8); Territory Express (R9)
ASCOT SATURDAY: Upper Limits (R9)
BLACKBOOKERS – Selected October 19
(Follow for next 3 starts)
ASGARDA; GOOD SORT; KING OF SPARTA; KONASANA; LADY LAGUNA; LOVELYCUT; MATISSE
RECENT BLACKBOOK WINNERS: Athabascan; Bullion Boy; Powers Of Opal; Poison Chalice; Tavi Time; Pharari; Tulsi; Bubba's Bay; First Light; Naval Trader; Moravia; Aviatress; Unlimited; Sunshine In Paris; Unusual Legacy; Spring Lee; Ceolwulf; The Englishman; Boom Torque; Kundalini; Daytona; Hellavadancer; Yorkshire
