Chris Scholtz selections for The Everest meeting at Randwick on October 19 including an analysis of the $20 million feature plus Trial Watch and Blackbook Reports.
RANDWICK October 19
Soft 5; Rail True
THE EVEREST
It hasn't taken long for the world's richest sprint to establish its own history since its first running in 2017.
The key takeaways are six of the seven winners have been geldings; no filly or mare from 17 starters has filled a place in the seven previous runnings; and it's an over-reaction to say it's a good race for 3YOs.
Sure two of the 3YO age group have won but they are the only placegetters among the 10 3YO starters in The Everest since 2017. It's popular to espouse that 3YOs are favoured by the WFA scale but in the spring they are still youngsters – some have not even reached their third birth date – and it will take a mighty effort for a 3YO to master this crack field that features eight G1 winners among the selected 12 horses (another four G1 winners make up the emergency list).
The brief history suggests previous runners in an Everest perform well second time around. In that space this year we find last year's runner-up I WISH I WIN, dual placegetter PRIVATE EYE and the 2022 winner GIGA KICK.
I'm siding with I WISH I WIN to go one better in 2024. He's ready to peak off two excellent prep runs, noting that his last two third up starts saw him win two G1 races – the TJ Smith at this course and the Kingsford Smith at Eagle Farm.
Notably this will be the first time he has worn blinkers this prep, replacing his trade mark nose roll, after a typically strong surge from the rear to finish third in the G1 Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley. It's the same gear changes his trainer Peter Moody applied when I WISH I WIN won the G1 Kingsford Smith at Eagle Farm in June beating BELLA NIPOTINA, turning around the result from their previous clash in the G1 Doomben Ten Thousand.
This will be I WISH I WIN's fourth start at Randwick after a win and two placings, performances that rank as the three best ratings of his career to date. He has never missed a place in 10 starts over 1200m and his five wins and six placings on affected tracks speaks for itself.
A wider barrier draw is also more favourable for him after jumping from the rails gate last year. The surety of a high pressure race will give him every opportunity to be ridden with cover and find ample room from the 400m to unleash his strong finish.
While no filly or mare has made the board in past years, this is by far their strongest Everest representation with six females of the highest standard taking on the boys.
SUNSHINE IN PARIS is a big threat, enjoying a perfectly timed prep after her impressive first-up win in the G2 Sheraco at Rosehill (Joliestar 3rd;); BELLA NIPOTINA and I AM ME rate as the best G1 sprinting mares in the last 12 months; STEFI MAGNETICA overwhelmed BELLA NIPOTINA in the G1 Stradbroke in June and will be all the better for her first-up second to I AM ME in the G2 Shorts; and JOLIESTAR resumed with a high rating win in the G3 Show County.
Little separates the ratings of the 3YO colts GROWING EMPIRE, STORM BOY and TRAFFIC WARDEN. However the on pacers GROWING EMPIRE and STORM BOY are going to have to absorb plenty of pressure in the first 800m while TRAFFIC WARDEN has an ideal draw to stalk the speed and will be strong late, having proved himself over 1400m with a win and placings in three high class Group races for his age group.
Golden Slipper winner LADY OF CAMELOT is sure to run a bold race using her natural pace from the gate under 51kg but will be tested to sustain her speed over 1200m from her wide draw.
The old hands GIGA KICK and PRIVATE EYE will sit back and let it all unfold in front of them. They deserve plenty of respect on their past efforts in this race but need to lift off their current figures to get home over the top of this deep field.
EVEREST SELECTIONS: (1) I WISH I WIN; (7) Sunshine In Paris; (4) Bella Nipotina; (10) Traffic Warden; (9) Growing Empire; (5) I Am Me
Randwick Best Bets
RACE 5 (3) FRONT PAGE: Groundhog Day for this classy sprinter to win his third Kosciuszko, coming off a prep that replicates his easy first-up wins in this race in 2022 (Soft 7) and 2023 (Good 4). As usual he's been lightly raced over the last 12 months but his Group form in the interim has been first class and his recent Rosehill trial when an easy second behind G1 star Overpass showed he is ready for a threepeat under the same weight he has carried in his previous two wins.
RACE 6 (3) SOUTHPORT TYCOON: Confident he can progress from his super win in the G1 Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley when he flew along the rails from the 300m in his first start for a month to beat two of the leading Everest contenders in a deep race. He's now a dual G1 winner and the three weeks break since the Manikato keeps him fresh for this high class sprint where he will relish stalking the on pace pressure.
RACE 8 (11) KIMOCHI: Top class mare returns to her favourite track where she has missed a place only once in seven starts. Followed her first-up win in the G2 Toy Show over 1100m at this course with a fine fifth in the G1 Manikato (1200m) at Moonee Valley where she endured a tough run but gave plenty over the last 200m. Well placed with 55.5kg in this field with her liking for affected ground.
Selections
RACE 1: (5) TRUST IN YOU; (2) Alegron; (6) Etna Rosso; (3) Athabascan
RACE 2: (3) DUCASSE; (7) Thunderlips; (8) High Dandy; (1) Berkshire Shadow
RACE 3: (4) ISLAND DEC; (1) Wings Of Desire; (9) Diddle Dumpling; (2) Dominetta
RACE 4: (5) HINGED; (10) Unique Ambition; (1) Lekvarte; (3) Sounds Of Heaven
RACE 5: (3) FRONT PAGE; (2) Far Too Easy; (1) Bandi's Boy; (5) Boom Torque
RACE 6: (3) SOUTHPORT TYCOON; (6) Mazu; (4) Airman; (9) Arkansaw Kid
RACE 7: (1) I WISH I WIN; (7) Sunshine In Paris; (4) Bella Nipotina; (10) Traffic Warden
RACE 8: (11) KIMOCHI; (12) Stretan Angel; (4) Ostraka; (10) War Machine
RACE 9: (10) FANGIRL; (9) Pride Of Jenni; (6) Ceowulf; (12) Amelia's Jewel
RACE 10: (14) BATTLETON; (6) Willaidow; (4) Estadio Mestalla; (19) Iron Man
Why They Can Win….
RACE 1: (5) TRUST IN YOU - Happy to trust the Metropolitan form. Tough Kiwi stayer will run this trip right out.
RACE 2: (3) DUCASSE - Carbine Club winner this course and distance. Ready to find that form on a soft track.
RACE 3: (4) ISLAND DEC - Impressive provincial wins on affected tracks. Untapped scope for improvement.
RACE 4: (4) HINGED - Perfect conditions/weight for her to break her long drought. Trust her to run to her best G1 form.
RACE 9: (10) FANGIRL - Last year's winner loves Randwick. Banking on her to run to her best 1600m times/sectionals. Will go close if she does.
RACE 10: (14) BATTLETON - Value in an open affair. Out to 1400m suits after running without luck in strong form races when finding 1200m too short.
TRIAL WATCH REPORT
NOTED TRIAL RUNNERS – October 9
RANDWICK: Front Page (R5); Overpass (R6); King Of Sparta (R6); Remarque (R6); Lady Laguna (R6); Joliestar (R7); Sunshine In Paris (R7); I Am Me (R7); Behtar (R10); Money From The Sky (R10)
CAULFIELD SATURDAY: Spacewalk (R7)
NEWCASTLE SATURDAY: Senshi (R3); Mayweather (R5)
ORANGE TUESDAY: Highwire Flyer (R3)
RECENT TRIAL WATCH WINNERS: Flame Of Hestia; Manos; Icarian Dream; Olentia; Admitted; Hard To Say; Iowna Benz; Aye Aye Captain; Force Red; Broadsiding; Swift Falcon; Creek; Zoubaby; Amelita; Ellipsis; Sunshine In Paris; Lady Shenandoah; Traffic Warden; Dashing Rupert; Opal Fields; Royal Patronage; Watch My Girl; Deconstruction; Briasa; Storm Boy
TRIAL POINTERS
RANDWICK October 8: A star studded black type heat over 1000m on the course proper featured nine G1 winners including four Everest candidates. Golden Slipper winner LADY OF CAMELOT took the honours, sitting outside a line of three from a wide gate and doing just enough to get the better of LADY LAGUNA and PRIVATE EYE by a neck without any coming under full pressure in reasonable time (58.48; 34.08). Only three lengths covered the nine at the finish. None were put to the test as they held their positions from start to finish. SUNSHINE IN PARIS looked good finishing an easy fourth while CELESTIAL LEGEND with blinkers applied was more focused as he put in his best work this prep to finish fifth. AMELIA'S JEWEL found the line nicely for sixth while the Waller trio of ZOUGOTCHA, JOLIESTAR and FANGIRL all had typical easy work over the last 400m. FANGIRL was eager to run through the line as she eased off heels. Forced to nominate the pick of the heat I would give a slight nod to SUNSHINE IN PARIS. I also liked the work of LADY LAGUNA and JOLIESTAR.
ROSEHILL October 4: The classy Everest entry I AM ME had an easy time finishing third in the fastest 1030m heat (60.63; 34.21) but was later found to have bled from one nostril. She was placed under an embargo and passed a trackwork test on October 14. Another Everest entry STEFI MAGNETICA contested a 900m heat (55.00; 34.70) and got a pass mark with her closing second behind the subsequent winner Admitted. She ran on from five lengths off the pace but was shaken up over the last 100m to make ground. KING OF SPARTA is a first-up specialist and looks ready to go after a stylish win in his 1030m trial (62.65; 34.39) to back up his first-up placing in a Canterbury trial on September 24. His trademark turn of foot was evident as he let down quickly from behind the pace to win by almost two lengths under a soft ride. REMARQUE rarely disappoints in his trials and showed he is ready to rebound from his first-up failure with a strong win in a deep 900m heat (54.66; 34.46). Led under a hold from start to finish and could easily have extended his margin. Bjorn Baker's flier OVERPASS was another top shelf sprinter to trial well, showing his customary speed to lead throughout in the fastest heat over 900m (53.79; 33.86) where the effort of FRONT PAGE to close off for second under no pressure showed he is the right form to chase a third successive win in the Kosciuszko. The maiden heats were chock full of good trials. Mark down the winner MAYWEATHER as a good prospect for an early win.
CANTERBURY September 24: A classy 1100m heat (55.02; 34.26) saw the G2 winner KING OF SPARTA doing his best work late for a closing third behind Corniche and Think About It.
BLACKBOOK REPORT
BLACKBOOKERS – Selected October 12
(Follow for next 3 starts)
BRAYDEN STAR; CHEWING GUM; DANNY'S ST DARCI; SOCKS NATION; TERRITORY EXPRESS
ELIGIBLE BLACKBOOK RUNNERS – October 19-20
CAULFIELD SATURDAY: All Kinds Of Folk (R4); Rey Magnerio (R7); Skybird (R8); Mollynickers (R8)
RANDWICK SATURDAY: Athabascan (R1); Stefi Magnetica (R7); Climbing Star (R6); Estadio Mestella (R10)
EAGLE FARM SATURDAY: Bullion Boy (R3/R10); Liberty Steps (R6)
SUNSHINE COAST SUNDAY: Liberty Steps (R4)
RECENT BLACKBOOK WINNERS: Powers Of Opal; Poison Chalice; Tavi Time; Pharari; Tulsi; Bubba's Bay; First Light; Naval Trader; Moravia; Aviatress; Unlimited; Sunshine In Paris; Unusual Legacy; Spring Lee; Ceolwulf; The Englishman; Boom Torque; Kundalini; Daytona; Hellavadancer; Yorkshire; Amigo; House Of Cards
